Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 14 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Well, NFL Week 13 wasn’t either extreme in the Tuley’s Takes, but it was a rollercoaster ride. I had a great Thanksgiving family feast with a 20-pound turkey, spiral ham, mashed potatoes, all the fixings, cranberries and three kinds of pie (pumpkin, razzleberry and chocolate cream) to kick off the long holiday weekend. As for my NFL best bets here, that’s where the rollercoaster came in as I went 3-5 ATS overall, starting with losses on the Giants +3.5 at the Giants and the Dolphins +3 at the Packers on Turkey Day.The weekend ended terribly as well. I lost the Sunday and Monday night football games on the 49ers +7 and the Browns +5.5 (the latter was the worst as we deserved a better fate there, only to be crushed by yet another Jameis Winston pick-six). In between, I went 3-1 ATS on Black Friday and Sunday afternoons with the Raiders +12.5 at the Chiefs, Cardinals +3.5 at the Vikings and Eagles +3 at the Ravens winning, while only losing on the Titans +5.5 at the Commanders.
That dropped our overall record to 39-38 ATS on the season, still above .500 but losing money to the vig. However, I’m sure regular readers know that once again, our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio bailed us out as our recommended plays went a perfect 6-0, so any combination of plays (we still stick with your 2-team, 6-point teasers through the key numbers of 3 and 7) cashed on the Falcons +7.5, Steelers +9, Patriots +9, Jets +7.5 (Seahawks +7.5 also cashed for any late bettors after the change in favoritism), Saints +9 and Eagles +9. I sincerely hope any followers out there have also been playing those!
But enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes). Let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 14, which only has 13 games, with the last six teams getting their bye weeks. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ETWe get a great Thursday night matchup with the Lions (leading the NFC North at 11-1, the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, and the current 3-1 Super Bowl favorite) hosting the Packers (not shabby at 9-3). And neither has a short week as they both won on Thanksgiving. The Lions controlled their game vs. the Bears, but didn’t cover in their 23-20 victory. Still, I’m not willing to fade them here at the short number, especially as they mostly dominated their first meeting in a 24-14 win just over a month ago in Week 9 (leading 24-7 before a garbage TD). And that was in Green Bay. Hard pass.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in my rare SU contests that use Thursday games).
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ETSpeaking of the NFC North, the Vikings (10-2) host the co-NFC South-leading Falcons (6-6) in the top game on Sunday’s betting board. The Vikings haven’t covered in three of their last four wins, so it’s tempting to fade them here. However, the Falcons are leaking oil with a 38-6 blowout loss in Denver before their bye week and then a 17-13 home loss vs. the Chargers. I would need at least a TD to back the dog here.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
New Orleans Saints (-5) at New York Giants
1 p.m. ETIs there an uglier game on this short NFL card? I was starting to get on the New Orleans bandwagon after the coaching change and thought they could make a run in the NFC South, especially with the way they were starting to use Taysom Hill again – but now he’s out for the season. I’m not sure why this line is climbing, but it’s still not enough to take the Giants as home dogs here.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
1 p.m. ETUm, this might contest Saints-Giants for the ugliest game, and I’m staying away from this one, too. The Titans let me down against the Commanders on Sunday, but I don’t like to flip on teams and bet against them the next week as I feel I’m doing it out of spite. I need more reasons, and the Jaguars (despite being surprisingly competitive in some recent losses vs. the Vikings and Texans) aren’t giving me enough. I’d prefer to focus on the other early games on Sunday.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Titans 67/33 in SU pools).
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5/-7)
1 p.m. ETThe Raiders, my new hometown team here in Vegas for better or worse, came through for us on Black Friday, covering in their 19-17 loss at the Chiefs as 12.5-point underdogs (and closed +14), though they should have pulled the outright upset except for the fact that Antonio Pierce and Aidan O’Connell looked like they were auditioning for my other team, the Bears, with their endgame snafu. For the uninitiated, the -6.5/-7 in the header means the line hasn’t settled yet, with several books dealing both lines (and often -120 attached to the side you want). I’ll be on the Raiders +7 if I can get it at -110, but the better overall play is probably teasing the Buccaneers down to basically pick-’em, so this is a good time to get into my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.” Unfortunately, with the short card, there is a lack of teams in my so-called “teaser zone” of being able to tease through the 3 and 7. With the current lines, the only play with the dog teaser that I prefer is Seahawks +9 (I’ll keep an eye out for any line moves), but let’s toss in the Steelers -0.5 as well.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Raiders +7, plus Buccaneers -0.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, lower at +6.5, but Buccaneers 80/20 in SU pools).
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5/-7)
1 p.m. ETThe Browns took bettors on a wild ride on Monday Night Football before failing to cover in their 41-32 loss in Denver. It’s tough to trust Winston again, but don’t forget that the Browns just upset these same Steelers 24-19 in the Week 12 Thursday nighter, and there’s no reason to think they won’t keep this as a one-score game again. Having said that, I’ll need the +7 just like in the Raiders-Bucs game, plus I’ll do the same thing with using the Steelers in some teasers as well.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Browns +7, plus Steelers -0.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, lower at +6.5, but Steelers 75/25 in SU pools).
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5)
1 p.m. ETAre the Eagles perhaps playing better than anyone else right now? Yes. Am I still willing to fade them? Yes. And that’s even truer at double-digits, especially as the Panthers have been surprisingly competitive lately with Bryce Young, as they’ve covered in their last two losses vs. the Chiefs (as 10.5-point dogs) and Buccaneers (as 6.5-point dogs).
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Panthers +12.5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Eagles at least 90/10 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6)
1 p.m. ETThe Dolphins still have a path to an AFC wild-card berth, so I guess that’s why this line is so high. Well, I guess it’s also because maybe all those Jets backers who have been inexplicably betting them all season have finally given up. But this is where I usually step in on the ugly underdog when they become a contrarian play. As terrible as the Jets (3-9) have been, they’re usually right in their games, so I can’t pass up the generous points here against a Miami team that still hasn’t put it together either, despite the return of Tua Tagovailoa.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Jets +6 (pool play: Jets 60/40 in ATS contests, but Dolphins still 67/33 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5/-3)
4:05 p.m. ETOK, let’s see a show of hands for those who circled this December game as a battle for first place in the NFC West. The Seahawks (7-5) lead the division, with the Cardinals (6-6) tied for second with the Rams, who we don’t anticipate upsetting the Bills on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks won the first meeting 16-6 just two weeks ago in Seattle, but I’m not interested in taking them plus the short number in what should be a coin-flip game. Instead, the Seahawks are our favorite teaser leg of the week, so I’ll be using them with the other legs (Steelers -0.5 and Buccaneers -0.5) that I mentioned above.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Seahawks +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests, but flip to Cardinals 60//40 in SU pools).
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams
4:25 p.m. ETThe red-hot Bills (10-2) get to head West after their impressive 35-10 rout of the 49ers in the snow on Sunday night. The Rams (6-6) have shown signs of competency and feel like they might make a playoff run, but this number is too short to back them here as I don’t see them slowing down Josh Allen and Co. or scoring enough to keep up.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
4:25 p.m. ETA little more than a month ago, this looked like it could have been a battle of wild-card teams, but now they’re both long shots to make the postseason, especially the Bears (4-8), who have been on a six-game losing streak that started with the Hail Mary loss at the Commanders. Not making people are looking to bet the Bears, but the fact is the 49ers (5-7) haven’t been playing any better, and the point spread has been dropping (it was 49ers -6 on the advance line last week) for good reason. In fact, I like the Bears in this spot as they’ve been competitive despite the losing streak (covering their last three losses vs. the Packers, Vikings and Lions), plus as we often see teams get a boost after firing a head coach as the players rally to try to prove they weren’t the problem as they audition for their jobs (or free-agent contracts in the off-season).
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Bears +4 (pool play: Bears 60/40 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
8:20 p.m. ETIn our Raiders-Chiefs writeup last week, I penned, “I sound like a broken record, but the Chiefs tend to let teams stick around before pulling out their wins” and “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” while fading the Chiefs once again, so you know I’m doing it again with the Chargers, who have five of their last six games to lead the AFC wild-card chase. In the first divisional meeting in L.A., the Chargers led 10-7 at the half before the Chiefs rallied to outscore them 14-0 in the second half to win 17-10. The closing line was Chiefs -7, so that was a push, but it shows you know how much the stock in these two teams has changed with the Chiefs being favored by fewer points at home. I see this coming down to a field goal, so that’s why I don’t see this number as too short.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Chargers +4 (pool play: Chargers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ETYou know that ESPN wishes the NFL would let them flex out of these MNF games like they do on SNF, as this is a stinker for so late in the season. The Bengals (4-8) have the slimmest of wild-card hopes, and that’s the only reason I can see why this line is so high. I would think that all the people burned by the Bengals this year, both ATS and in Survivor pools, would have stopped betting them by now, so I’ll take the home dog here, though we have to plug our nose with this one. However, the fact remains that Cooper Rush hasn’t looked so bad the last two weeks, with the 34-26 upset of the Commanders as 10–point underdogs and then covering as 4-point favorites in the 27-20 win over the Giants on Thanksgiving.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Cowboys +5.5 (pool play: Cowboys 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 60/40 in SU pools).
